Tags: Ron Paul | Mitt Romney | Polls | 2012 President Race | | Rick Perry | 2012 Polls | Newt Gingrich

Gallup: Republican Presidential Race Is Most Volatile Ever

Monday, 02 Jan 2012 09:40 AM

By Newsmax Wires

Gallup pollsters marvel that the Republican presidential contest is the most volatile for the GOP since polling began, with four front-runners emerging and changing positions seven times since May in Gallup polling.

The phenomenal jockeying rivals only the Democrats in 2003, when six front-runners slipped into, and fell out of, the lead nine times, Gallup notes in a new report released today.

In the 2012 GOP horse race, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich occupied the top spot at various times last year, “with Romney's standing rising and falling as other candidates surged and faded,” Gallup’s analysis says.

Here’s the way the GOP lead has stacked up at various times, based on Gallup polls and Gallup Daily tracking last year:
  • May-June — Romney
  • July — Romney and Perry
  • August — Perry
  • October-early November — Romney and Cain, tied
  • Mid-November — Romney and Gingrich, tied
  • Early- to mid-December — Gingrich
  • Late December — Gingrich and Romney, tied
Toss two more names into the mix, and the race has been even more fluid, Gallup observes: “Mike Huckabee led the Republican field, or tied Romney and Sarah Palin for the lead, in Gallup polls at the start of the year; however Huckabee and Palin ultimately declined to run.”

Not since 1964 has the Republican Party had as many serious contenders, Gallup’s analysis states, adding that “many of the shifts in national Republican preferences in the 1964 race occurred after the primaries began, rather than in the year leading up to it.

“Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater were the only Republican front-runners in Gallup polling in 1963. Then, during the primary season in 1964, Richard Nixon, Henry Cabot Lodge, and William Scranton all emerged in the lead or tied for the lead, before Goldwater won the nomination at a hard fought convention.”

The bottom line, on the eve of the Iowa caucuses Tuesday, Gallup notes, is that the Hawkeye State voting signals the “close of the preliminary phase of the 2012 Republican nomination contest and the start of actual voting that could result in additional national preference swings before the nomination is settled.

“Historical comparisons of primaries can be problematic, given differences in the number of candidates and number of poll conducted each election. It still seems clear that this phase of the 2012 Republican nomination process has been the most volatile for the GOP since the advent of polling.”

© 2015 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
Top Stories
You May Also Like

Mali's Islamists Withdraw Cease-Fire Pledge

Friday, 04 Jan 2013 13:06 PM

Tens of thousands of Fatah supporters rallied in the Hamas stronghold of Gaza on Friday for the first time since they we . . .

Fmr. CIA Director Hayden: Iran Nuclear Crisis Gets 'Scarier'

Tuesday, 17 Jul 2012 18:11 PM

 . . .

Join Fmr. CIA Director for Special Iran Briefing, Assess the Danger

Friday, 13 Jul 2012 12:27 PM

 . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved