Tags: Obama | near | winning | lead

Zogby Poll: Obama Close to Win

Monday, 03 Nov 2008 08:18 AM

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Obama 50.9%, McCain 43.8%

UTICA, New York - As Election Day nears in the U.S. Presidential race, Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 7.1 points over Republican John McCain, up from a 5.7 point advantage in yesterday's report, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama's territory. A reminder: we will have another release based on polling through midnight Monday out early Tuesday."

Week Four

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

11-2

11-1

10-31

10-30

10-29

10-28

10-27

Obama

50.9%

49.5%

49.1%

50.1%

50.2%

49.1%

49.0%

McCain

43.8%

43.8%

44.1%

43.1%

43.3%

44.4%

44.7%

Others/Not sure

5.3%

6.7%

6.8%

6.8%

6.5%

6.5%

6.3%

Week Three

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

10-26

10-25

10-24

10-23

10-22

10-21

10-20

Obama

49.9%

49.4%

51.1%

51.3%

52.2%

51.6%

50.3%

McCain

45.1%

44.1%

41.6%

41.0%

40.3%

42.0%

42.4%

Others/Not sure

4.9%

6.6%

7.3%

7.7%

7.5%

6.4%

7.3%

Week Two

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

10-19

10-18

10-17

10-16

10-15

10-14

10-13

Obama

49.8%

47.8%

48.3%

48.7%

49.0%

48.2%

49.0%

McCain

44.4%

45.1%

44.4%

43.7%

43.5%

44.4%

42.8%

Others/Not sure

5.8%

7.1%

7.3%

7.6%

7.5%

7.4%

8.2%

Week One

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

10-12

10-11

10-10

10-9

10-8

10-7

10-6

Obama

47.9%

48.9%

47.6%

47.6%

47.8%

47.1%

47.7%

McCain

43.6%

42.8%

43.8%

43.4%

44.2%

45.2%

45.3%

Others/Not sure

8.5%

8.3%

8.6%

9.0%

8.0%

7.7%

7.0%

Obama leads by 15 points among independents and wins 89% support among Democrats. He also leads by 16 points among those who have already voted and 27 points among those who have registered to vote in the last six months. Obama leads by 13 points among women and by just a point among men, as well as leading among all age groups with the exception of those age 55-69, who favor McCain by one point. He also strong leads among Hispanics and moderates.

McCain leads among whites by 13 points and wins 87% support from Republicans. He also leads among conservatives by 53 points, NASCAR fans by 12 points, and investors by seven points.

The three-day rolling tracking poll included 1,205 likely voters - about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. Eastern daily) - and was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.

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