Registered voters now favor a generic Republican candidate over President Barack Obama by a margin of 47 to 39 percent. The eight-point spread represents the first significant margin for a GOP candidate, a new Gallup
The poll, conducted July 7-10, marks the second month in a row that a Republican held an edge against Obama. In June, a generic Republican held a 44-39 percent lead. The poll found that independent registered voters are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate than for Obama by a margin of 44 to 34 percent.
“However, the poll does not have a large degree of predictive ability,” Gallup's analysis of the numbers says.
“President Obama's re-election prospects do not look very favorable at this point — if the election were held today, as measured by the generic presidential ballot. However, that result does not necessarily mean he is likely to be denied a second term in November 2012. At this point in 1991, George H.W. Bush looked like a sure bet to win a second term, but he was defeated.”
Gallup noted that a key, and yet-to-be-determined, factor is who the Republican nominee is. “Mitt Romney is the presumptive front-runner, but, but Americans have generally not held very positive opinions of him the last few years,” Gallup said.
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