Rep. Michele Bachmann’s lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Iowa may be significantly larger than the four points shown in the Voter/Consumer Research poll. A closer look at the poll shows that among voters described as “most attentive,” Bachmann holds a 14-point lead over Romney, 32 percent to 18 percent, The Washington Post
Attentive voters are especially important in Iowa that uses a caucus
system where they are much more likely to head out into the cold night to vote. The numbers also show that Bachmann is a rarity in the GOP field in that she evokes passion.
“What it means is the news stories are probably not overestimating her current momentum ... in fact, they may be underestimating it,” GOP consultant Dan Hazelwood told the Post. “And second, she has a sizable base to mobilize for a caucus event.” Democratic pollster Fred Yang said, “She’s clearly got a constituency — the aware and the hard-core — which is a positive sign for a primary.”
Businessman Herman Cain is the only other 2012 candidate who scores better among “more attentive” voters than regular voters. Cain gets a bump from 9 percent to 12 percent in the Iowa GOP poll, the Post reported, which described him as “something different from the standard-issue Republican presidential candidate.”
“Given the apparent lack of effort from the Romney campaign in Iowa and the lack of another frontrunner, though, right now it’s very much Bachmann’s race to lose,” the Post wrote.
“Romney and other more establishment candidates have plenty of time to excite the Republican base, but it’s pretty clear for now that there is a significant enthusiasm gap in the Republican presidential field. And we could see some pretty significant shifts in the race because of it – not just in Iowa, but in other primary and caucus states as well.”
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