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Poll: Hillary Has Big Pennsylvania Lead

Thursday, 13 Mar 2008 11:16 AM

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Strategic Vision, LLC, an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll of 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania on various political issues. The poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. For the poll, 576 (48%) identified themselves as Democrats; 504 (42%) identified themselves as Republicans; and 120 (10%) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.

The results of the poll showed that 26% of those polled approved of President Bush’s overall job performance; with 65% disapproving; and 9% undecided. When asked if they approved of the President’s handling of the economy, 18% approved; 73% disapproved; and 9% were undecided. On the issue of Iraq, the poll found 25% approved of the President’s handling of the war; with 69% disapproving; and 6% undecided. When asked about the President’s handling of the war on terrorism, 52% approved; 38% disapproved; and 10% were undecided.

“The President’s poll numbers are anemic and it is no longer the war in Iraq but rather the economy that is hurting the President,” said David E. Johsnon, CEO and Co-Founder of Strategic Vision, LLC. “The economy has replaced the war as the number one issue in Pennsylvania and is a major reason for the President’s low approval numbers and this low support resonates across Party lines.”

When Republican respondents were asked if they saw President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 11% said yes; 70% said no; and 19% were undecided.

“The President continues to poll low when asked if he is a strong conservative which demonstrates his low hold among conservatives in Pennsylvania,” said Johnson.

When asked if they favored an immediate withdrawal of United States military forces from Iraq within 6 months, 47% said yes; 46% said no; and 7% were undecided.

“Support for immediate withdrawal from Iraq has eroded dramatically in the state which demonstrates that opposition to the Iraq War alone is not a path to victory,” said Johnson.

When asked if voters approved or disapproved of the way Congress is handling its job, 17% approved; 70% disapproved; and 13% were undecided.

“This number should be of concern to Democrats and Republicans both as this could be setting up the November Election as a vote against incumbents of all Parties,” said Johnson.

When voters were asked if they approved or disapproved of Governor Ed Rendell’s job performance, 54% approved; 39% disapproved; and 7% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of Senator Arlen Specter’s job performance, 53% approved; 37%; disapproved; and 10% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of Senator Bob Casey’s job approval, 47% approved; 35% disapproved; and 18% were undecided.

When Democrats were asked their choices for President in 2008, the results were New York Senator Hillary Clinton 56%; Illinois Senator Barack Obama 38%; and 6% undecided.

“Clinton is dominating in the state particularly among blue-collar and female voters and Obama does not appear to have made headway in those constituencies,” said Johnson. “On the other hand Obama scores heavily among younger voters and African-American voters. Interestingly enough a larger number of Obama’s voters say they won’t support Clinton if she is the nominee than do Clinton supporters say they will support Obama.”

When Democratic voters asked what was most important to them, a candidate who represented change or one with experience, 45% said experience; 39% said change; and 16% were undecided.

“In Pennsylvania, unlike other states, experience still trumps change,” said Johnson.

In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, McCain led 48% to 42% with 10% undecided. In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama, McCain led 47% to 44% with 9% undecided.

“The fact McCain is leading by fairly strong margins could bode well for the Republicans,” said Johnson.

Poll Results

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s overall job performance?

Approve

26%

Disapprove

65%

Undecided

9%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the economy?

Approve

18%

Disapprove

73%

Undecided

9%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

Approve

25%

Disapprove

69%

Undecided

6%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism?

Approve

52%

Disapprove

38%

Undecided

10%

5. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)

Yes

11%

No

70%

Undecided

19%

6. Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops immediately from Iraq within the next six months?

Yes

47%

No

46%

Undecided

7%

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job?

Approve

17%

Disapprove

70%

Undecided

13%

8. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed Rendell’s job performance?

Approve

54%

Disapprove

39%

Undecided

7%

9. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Arlen Specter’s job performance?

Approve

53%

Disapprove

37%

Undecided

10%

10. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Bob Casey’s job performance?

Approve

47%

Disapprove

35%

Undecided

18%

11. Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats Only)

Hillary Clinton

56%

Barack Obama

38%

Undecided

6%

12. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only)

Change

45%

Experience

39%

Undecided

16%

13. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?

John McCain

48%

Hillary Clinton

42%

Undecided

10%

14. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?

John McCain

47%

Barack Obama

44%

Undecided

9%

Strategic Vision, LLC is an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted March 7-9, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Additional information on Strategic Vision, LLC may be obtained at www.strategicvision.biz.

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