The growth of prosperous “exurbs” near cities such as Dallas and Atlanta will cement Republican electoral gains in the next round of congressional redistricting, The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog reports
. Population flow into the South and West tracked in the new U.S. Census means more seats in Congress for Republican-leaning states including Georgia and Texas, and fewer for the Democratic Northeast.
“The partisan patterns are by no means uniform,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver cautions. “Democrats will benefit from growing Hispanic populations in some places, and some Republican-leaning rural districts in Farm Belt states like Iowa are losing population.”
Those developments have some Democrats talking optimistically about the congressional results of the Census. “But," Silver concludes, "the trends should benefit Republicans over all, almost no matter how the new boundary lines are drawn."
Texas will have as many as four additional House seats under census-mandated redistricting, while Arizona and Florida will each gain one or two. Georgia and Utah are likely to add one seat apiece. New York is expected to lose two seats, while New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Massachusetts could lose one each.
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