Momentum Shifting Rapidly Against Immediate Strike on Syria

Thursday, 29 Aug 2013 12:23 PM

 

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President Barack Obama told Americans a military strike against Syria is in their interest following a deadly gas attack last week and Britain said armed action would be legal, but intervention looked set to be delayed until U.N. investigators report back.

Senior Obama administration officials are expected to brief congressional leaders later on Thursday, with lawmakers complaining they have not been properly consulted about plans to respond to what Washington says was the gassing of civilians.

While U.N. chemical weapons inspectors spent a third day combing the rebel-held suburb where the attack took place, elsewhere in Damascus traffic moved normally, with some extra army presence but little indication of any high alert.

A parliamentary debate in London revealed deep misgivings stemming from the 2003 invasion of Iraq. After pressure from lawmakers, the British government — a key player in any proposed air assault on Syria — has promised parliament a decisive vote once the U.N. weapons inspectors report their findings.

The United Nations said its team of inspectors investigating the attacks, which killed hundreds of people, will leave Syria on Saturday and then report to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

France and Germany urged the world body to pass its report on to the decision-making Security Council as soon as possible "so that it can fulfill its responsibility with regards to this monstrous crime."

The United States, Britain, and France say they can act with or without a U.N. Security Council resolution, which is likely to be vetoed by Russia, a close ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad. However, some countries are raising qualms: Italy said it would not join any military operation without Security Council authorization.

Western diplomats say they are seeking a vote in the 15-member council to isolate Moscow and demonstrate that other countries are behind air strikes.

"It would be unthinkable to proceed if there was overwhelming opposition in the [U.N.] Security Council," British Prime Minister David Cameron told parliament.

He published legal advice given to the government, under which military action would be lawful for humanitarian reasons even if a Security Council resolution were blocked.

The International Committee of the Red Cross joined a chorus of international voices urging caution.

"Further escalation will likely trigger more displacement and add to humanitarian needs, which are already immense," said Magne Barth, head of the ICRC delegation in Syria.

Increasing expectations that any action will be delayed ended a three-day sell-off on world share markets on Thursday, although investors are still on edge over future turmoil in the Middle East.

Obama sought to win over a war-weary American public by saying intervention in Syria, where more than 100,000 people have been killed in of civil war, would serve U.S. national security interests.

"If we are saying in a clear and decisive but very limited way, we send a shot across the bow saying, 'Stop doing this,' this can have a positive impact on our national security over the long term," the president said on "PBS NewsHour" in a televised interview.

While saying he had not yet made a decision on military action, Obama left little doubt the choice was not whether, but when to punish Syria for the gas attacks.

"We have concluded the Syrian government in fact carried these out," he said on Wednesday evening.

Syria denies blame for the gas attacks and says they were perpetrated by rebels. Washington and its allies say the denial is not credible.

A report from Moscow that Russia plans to send two warships to the eastern Mediterranean underscored the complications surrounding even a limited military strike, although Russia has said it will not be drawn into military conflict.

Western leaders are expected in Russia next Thursday for a meeting of the Group of 20 big economies, an event that could influence the timing of any strikes. The hosts have made clear their view that Western leaders are using human rights as a pretext to impose their will on other sovereign states.

"At this stage it is necessary to take all needed actions to avert possible negative developments ... or some kind of military action regarding Syria," Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Gennady Gatilov told state-run Rossiya-24 television. "And that is what we ... are focusing our efforts on now."

A spokesman for the main Syrian opposition umbrella group, the Syrian National Coalition, said the opposition was confident Western leaders were prepared to act. SNC leader Ahmed Jarba met with French President Francois Hollande, and an SNC spokesman said they discussed a two-wave intervention to first target installations used to launch chemical weapons and then hit other government bases in Syria.

"We are very happy. France and its partners are quite decided to punish the Syrian regime," SNC envoy Monzer Makhous told Reuters after the talks. "Then there will be military aid to help the opposition to change the balance of power."

Hollande urged Jarba to create a credible military force, highlighting Western concern that the mainstream opposition is unable to control al-Qaida-linked militias on the ground in Syria. Syrian officials say the West is playing into the hands of its al Qaida enemies.

In Damascus, residents and opposition forces said Assad's forces appeared to have evacuated most personnel from army and security command headquarters in the center in preparation for Western military action.

People unable to decide whether to leave for neighboring Lebanon said the border was already jammed.

"We're hearing people are spending hours — like 12 or 14 hours — waiting in line at the border," said Nabil, who was considering leaving town for Beirut with his wife and young daughter, "just until the strike is over."

Arguing for measured intervention after long resisting deeper involvement in Syria, Obama insisted that while Assad's government must be punished, he intended to avoid repeating U.S. errors from the Iraq war.

"I have no interest in any open-ended conflict in Syria, but we do have to make sure that when countries break international norms on weapons like chemical weapons that could threaten us, that they are held accountable," Obama said.

Despite opinion polls showing most Americans oppose deeper involvement in the Syrian conflict, Obama has been under pressure to enforce a "red line" against chemical weapons use, which he declared just over a year ago.

The likeliest option, U.S. officials say, would be to launch cruise missiles from U.S. ships in the Mediterranean in a campaign that would last days.

Obama cited chemical weapons dangers to U.S. Mideast allies Israel, Turkey, and Jordan and U.S. bases in the region, and said America's national interests could be at risk if Syrian chemical arms fell into the wrong hands.

Although decisive action against Syria is strongly backed by many in Congress, there have been growing calls for Obama to seek congressional authorization before ordering the use of force, something he is unlikely to do. Wrangling over the issue could complicate any attack timetable.

 

© 2014 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

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