Newt Gingrich rode into Thursday night’s Republican presidential debate on a wave of support as four separate polls issued in less than 24 hours all had him surging ahead of presumed front-runner Mitt Romney in the vital state of South Carolina.
Gingrich’s strong debate performance Monday night, where he received a standing ovation after tussling with Fox News’ Juan Williams over welfare benefits, is being credited as the main reason for the sudden surge which has seen him eliminate Romney’s double-digit lead in a matter of days.
Now all eyes are on tonight’s debate in Charleston to see if the former House speaker can repeat his blockbuster performance or whether Romney can dust himself off after hesitating and prevaricating in Myrtle Beach.
A Newsmax poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage first gave evidence that Gingrich was in the catbird seat against Romney in Saturday’s primary in the Palmetto State. The survey, released Wednesday night, gave Gingrich 32 percent support among likely primary voters, compared to Romney’s 29 percent.
That poll was followed on Thursday by three more — all of which confirmed InsiderAdvantage's findings. First, Rasmussen Reports came out with Gingrich up by 33 percent to 31. Hours later, it was followed by a poll from the American Research Group (ARG) that had Gingrich up by 33 points to 32.
Finally, the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) had Gingrich up, 34 percent to 28 percent, in the first of three nights of tracking going into the primary.
All four surveys show a remarkable turnaround over just a few days. The ARG poll showed Gingrich had shot up by eight percentage points in less than a week.
Editor's Note: Will Newt Gingrich Win South Carolina? Who Would You Support? Click Here to Vote.
“This all shows the race is now Newt’s to lose,” InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery told Newsmax.
But he cautioned that it is not all over.
“Romney went into the last debate and he was flat-footed with his answer about releasing his taxes. Everyone who has ever debated can tell you that, no matter how good a debater you are, there are going to be off days," Towery said.
“The chances of Romney having a second off-night tonight are not that high.”
And he said that Gingrich is bound to be asked about allegations from his second wife Marianne that he asked her for an open marriage.
“Whatever his answer is, it is not going to be a comfortable situation for him, and if he flubs it, it could be worse. My advice would be to say this is last-minute gotcha journalism about something that allegedly happened 15 years ago, and then most people will forget it.
“But the situation is that Romney has nowhere to go but up, and Newt has nowhere to go but down,” added Towery.
Rasmussen Reports President Scott Rasmussen also told Newsmax the situation in South Carolina is very volatile.
“The reason Newt Gingrich is doing so well right now is that he is spectacular in the debates,” said Rasmussen. “He has, unique among anybody I’ve seen in a presidential debate, the ability to turn questions around, change the premise and make his points.”
Rasmussen said there are two clear camps among Republicans – those who are for Mitt Romney and those who are looking for an alternative.
“A lot of people would say, ‘Well, I really like Rick Santorum, but right now if Newt Gingrich is the way to slow down Mitt Romney, maybe I’ll vote for him.’ These are the kind of voters and last-minute choices that are going to make the decision” he said.
The polls were unanimous in suggesting that it is tea party supporters that have put Gingrich over the top. “A total of 43 percent of tea party supporters say they will vote for Gingrich,” said ARG, noting that the figure was up from 28 percent in its Jan. 11-12 survey.
PPP said its figures were “not a case of Romney imploding” but of Gingrich picking up votes from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and from Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who quit the race after the polling was completed.
“It's clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich's prospects in the state,” added PPP. “Fifty-six percent of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich's lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn't tune in.”
Editor's Note: Will Newt Gingrich Win South Carolina? Who Would You Support? Click Here to Vote.
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