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Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage Poll: Bachmann's Surprising Surge

By Jim Meyers   |   Wednesday, 25 May 2011 12:26 PM

Michele Bachmann is the big winner in a stunning new Newsmax poll showing the Minnesota congresswoman and businessman Herman Cain surging among voters in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary.

The InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax survey that ended on May 24 shows Bachmann with 11.8 percent of the overall vote. That’s way up from the 4.3 percent she was garnering in April and early May, according to an average of several polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.

Bachmann — who hasn’t even announced her candidacy — leads the six other potential GOP candidates among independents, with 16.4 percent of the vote. That’s higher than her showing among Republicans, 11.3 percent.

She also wins 32.2 percent of the black vote, well more than twice the 12.9 percent won by Cain, who is African-American. And she polls better among male voters, 17.2 percent, than females, 7.1 percent.

Editor’s Note: Do you support Michele Bachmann for President? Vote Here Now.

“The big surprise in this poll is Michele Bachmann,” Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage, tells Newsmax.

“Her numbers are surging, particularly with the independents. This is extremely important because the independent block, which includes the tea party, is estimated to be 35 percent of the entire Republican electorate. She beats every other candidate with these voters.

“She has climbed from 4 percent in early May to 11.8 percent now. That is dramatic and shows that her message is resonating well with voters. The only caveat would be if Chris Christie enters the race — in previous polls he has taken away voters from Bachmann.

“Herman Cain is definitely on the upswing as well. The poll shows that he also has strength with Democrats.”

In fact, Cain receives more votes from Democrats, 14.9 percent, than from Republicans, 10 percent, and he gets 13.4 percent of the independent vote.
“Both these candidates speak to the common man,” Towery says.

“Voters are turned off by the inside-the-beltway babble talk, and these two candidates are as far from that as can be.”

Towery points out that “it is extremely early in the race for two ‘freshman’ candidates like Bachmann and Cain to be polling this well. And that does not bode well for the rest of the current Republican field. It shows that there is voter dissatisfaction with the traditional Republican candidates. This is underscored by 25.5 percent of those polled choosing ‘undecided.’”

Mitt Romney is the overall leader in the new poll, receiving 16.2 percent of the vote, but that “is not necessarily good news,” Towery observes.

“His numbers have stayed steady in the high teens for several weeks. He is not enjoying any upward movement. He has been as high as 18 percent in previous polls. He has huge name recognition, the voters are familiar with him from the last presidential campaign, yet his numbers stagnate. That is not a good sign.

“With Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, Mitch Daniels, and Chris Christie all declaring they will not enter the race, you would have expected Romney to have gotten at least some bump. He didn’t. Bachmann and Cain did.”
Interestingly, Bachmann trounces Romney among voters age 18 to 29, collecting 30.6 percent to Romney’s 7.6 percent.

Sarah Palin finished second behind Romney among all voters in the poll, with 11.8 percent, but her numbers too have stagnated in recent weeks despite the absence of Huckabee, Trump, Daniels and Christie. Her earlier RealClearPolitics average stood at 10.6 percent.

The other potential candidates in the poll are Tim Pawlenty, who received 7.4 percent of the overall vote, Newt Gingrich (6.4 percent), and Ron Paul (5 percent).

Gingrich received just 2.4 percent of the votes among independents, the lowest of any candidate.

Also, Paul gets twice as many votes from Democrats and independents than from Republicans.

Pollster Towery adds: “If the current media attention to the lackluster Republican field continues, this will cause a low traditional Republican voter turnout, which means that the independent block could rise as high as 50 percent. This would catapult both Bachmann and Cain into the catbird positions.

“This also tells the Republican Party that they cannot ignore the tea party.”

Editor’s Note: Do you support Michele Bachmann for President?
Vote Here Now.

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