Romney, Gingrich Beat Obama in 12 Swing States

Tuesday, 13 Dec 2011 10:25 AM

By Dan Weil

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink
President Barack Obama is in big trouble, with both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich leading him in a dozen key swing states, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich,
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, chatting during a break in the GOP presidential debate Saturday, have plenty to smile about with the USA Today/Gallup poll showing them beating President Barack Obama in a dozen swing states. (AP Photo)
Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney leads Obama among registered voters, 48 percent to 43 percent, in the 12 states the survey covers. And former House Speaker Gingrich leads the president, 48 percent to 45 percent. Nationwide, Obama leads Gingrich, 50 percent to 44 percent, and Romney, 47 percent to 46 percent, according to the poll.

The 12 states are  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Obama won all of them in 2008. Each could go either way next year, and Obama needs to win half of their electoral votes to gain a second term, according to USA Today.

The portion of voters in those states who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning has dropped 4 percentage points since 2008, while the portion of Republicans has risen 5 points.

In 2008, when Obama won those states by 8 percentage points, Democrats led Republicans in party identification by a whopping 11 points. Now, the Democrats’ edge is a statistically insignificant 2 points.

Meanwhile, a wide enthusiasm gap has emerged between Republicans and Democrats, with 61 percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47 percent of Democrats.

The most enthusiastic include some of the GOP’s base — conservatives and middle-aged men and women. The least enthusiastic include key Democratic constituencies responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory, such as minorities and younger voters.

"Enthusiasm is a tremendous benefit," Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus told USA Today. "We're going to be able to mobilize a grass-roots army. It helps us recruit volunteers and run absentee-ballot programs. We can fill rooms with people making phone calls and going door-to-door."

The decrease in the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, coupled with the increase of those who call themselves independents, will make Obama’s re-election quest more difficult. Excluding those who lean Democratic, the portion of voters who identify themselves as Democrats has slipped to 30 percent from 35 percent in 2008. Meanwhile, the portion of independents has climbed to 42 percent from 35 percent.

In three of the eight swing states that have party registration — Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire — independents now outnumber both Republicans and Democrats.

That’s bad news for Obama, as independents by definition carry no loyalty for a party's nominee. Moreover, the inflammatory rhetoric that may be needed to enliven the core element of the Democratic base — liberals, African Americans, Hispanics etc. — may turn off independent voters.

To be sure, Republicans face the same difficulty. A candidate who pushes hard to the right during the GOP primaries to attract the party’s conservative base may have a difficult time winning over independents in the general election.

But trends in ideological demographics are working for Republicans and against Democrats. In the swing states poll, 44 percent of respondents called themselves conservatives, more than doubling the 21 percent who called themselves liberal.

Assuming strong support among conservatives, the Republican nominee will need only a small portion of the 35 percent of voters who call themselves moderates to win the election. Obama, on the other hand, needs to carry not only his liberal base but a majority of moderates as well.



© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Country
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
Top Stories
You May Also Like

Betsy McCaughey: CDC Making Big Mistake on Ebola Patients

Wednesday, 22 Oct 2014 15:59 PM

The new Ebola strategy announced Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is not the right remedy to ens . . .

Rep. Jason Chaffetz: Klain Not Ready to Be Ebola Czar

Wednesday, 22 Oct 2014 12:16 PM

Newly-appointed Ebola czar Ron Klain may not be ready for the position if he wasn't able to appear before Congress and a . . .

Border Patrol Agent: US Faces Ebola Threat Via Southern Border

Wednesday, 22 Oct 2014 09:33 AM

The United States is facing a major threat of an Ebola outbreak transmitted by Africans entering the country illegally f . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved