Citi's Wieting: Next Recession Will Come Before 2020

Tuesday, 12 Aug 2014 07:56 AM

By Dan Weil

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The economy has been in recovery mode for more than five years now, and some analysts grew quite enthusiastic after news of the 4 percent expansion in GDP during the second quarter.

But Steven Wieting, global chief strategist for Citi Private Bank, says you can hold the confetti.

"I hear more and more that this is going to be an endless bull market that there are no cyclical downturns," he tells CNBC. "I think the evidence we've had this year is that, in fact, we have a finite recovery."

Editor’s Note:
Retire 10 Years Earlier With These 4 Stocks


Wieting predicts the economy will endure another recession before the "decade is out."

When it comes to stocks, "I don't have a problem with the equity market level per se, but the amount of confidence that we're in a smooth path has been a problem," he argues.

Wieting points to the danger that turmoil in the Mideast and Ukraine presents for the market. "These are things we don't look through."

Still, underlying fundamentals remain strong for stocks, he notes.

"Earnings are rising, bond valuations are very high and markets can make progress after this [international uncertainty]."

As for the economy, it hasn't been quite right even pre-dating the 2007-09 financial crisis, says Harvard economist Larry Summers.

"It has been a long time since the American economy has grown rapidly in a financially sustainable way," he tells the New Republic magazine. The Federal Reserve's low-interest-rate policy hasn't been enough to keep savings from exceeding investment, Summers notes.

Editor’s Note: Retire 10 Years Earlier With These 4 Stocks

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