Yale's Robert Shiller: Stock, Bond, Housing Markets Look Bubbly

Wednesday, 20 Aug 2014 12:50 PM

By Dan Weil

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The stock, bond and housing markets may be pushing into highly overvalued territory, says Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller of Yale University.

As for stocks, Shiller's cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio, which is based on 10 years of earnings, stands at 26.2 for the S&P 500, its fourth highest level since 1881.

The ratio has stood above 20 for the last 20 years, Shiller told CNBC. "It's a little higher than the average for those years, but it's been high for a long time. It's not exactly a new alarm."

Editor’s Note: New Warning - Stocks on Verge of Major Collapse

As for bonds, "we've had negative TIP [Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities] rates recently, so what's going on here?" Shiller said. "That looks a little like a bubble as well. So, the whole thing might correct down, both bonds and stocks."

On the residential-real-estate front, "I've been kind of surprised by the housing market," Shiller said. "It bottomed out in 2012. It's up something like 25 percent, in some cities much more than that. So, we are seeing a sort of boom in the housing market."

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 major cities rose 9.3 percent in the 12 months through May.

Other heavy hitters are concerned about asset valuations too.

"We're in a world where there are very few unambiguously cheap assets," Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, told The New York Times. "If you ask me to give you the one big bargain out there, I'm not sure there is one."

Editor’s Note: New Warning - Stocks on Verge of Major Collapse

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