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Treasury Market Rally Is Stronger Than Every Economist Predicted

This year’s Treasury market rally has been stronger than every economist surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted.

Ten-year yields that slid to 2.32 percent Thursday were lower than the levels projected by all 66 economists surveyed for their Sept. 30 forecasts.

Even as the Federal Reserve scales back the bond-purchase program it has used to support the U.S. economy, Treasurys are drawing demand as yields in Europe fall to records amid speculation the European Central Bank will increase its efforts to cut borrowing costs. Fighting in Ukraine is spurring investor appetite for the safest securities.

“The bond market still has more room to rally,” said Ali Jalai, a bond trader in Singapore at Scotiabank, a unit of Bank of Nova Scotia, one of 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. “The consensus is that the ECB will announce some sort of bond-buying program.” In Ukraine, “it seems to be getting bigger and bigger every day,” he said.

 

The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey conducted Aug. 8 to Aug. 13 was for the benchmark to be 2.70 percent by the end of September, while the lowest prediction was 2.40 percent.

Yields are also less than the bottom forecast for year-end, which is 2.43 percent among 68 economists who responded.


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This year's Treasury market rally has been stronger than every economist surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted. Ten-year yields that slid to 2.32 percent Thursday were lower than the levels projected by all 66 economists surveyed for their Sept. 30 forecasts.
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